How well did the LEAF work out?

The Nissan LEAF was launched with much fanfare in 2010 as “the first mass produced electric car”, 13 years on, lets discuss how things turned out. While far from a “needle-mover” the LEAF serves its purpose for Nissan, its a well built car that is true to its design philosophy of a Leading, Environmentally friendly, Affordable, Family car. Even now, almost 13 years after its launch, the market clearly shows its appetite for the roominess aspects of the Leaf, that 500l boot can hold a lot of stuff. Interestingly, a relatively lively aftermarket upgrade scene has emerged for the Nissan Leaf.

Nissan reportedly spent at least 5.6 B$ to bring the first generation leaf to market (source). As discussed in a prior post, “early-build” losses might have put another few $B of red ink on Nissan’s Books. I do suspect the Nissan Leaf got to per-unit profitability perhaps in 2015 (source), in particular when you factor in the emission trading schemes.

Emission reduction schemes in many regions around the world allow non-EV car makers to pay EV car makers to “green” their average emissions statistics. This is no chump change, in the second quarter of 2020, Tesla earned 428M$ (source) from such schemes. Tesla produced 90 000 cars during that quarter (source). On a per car delivered basis, this is about 5k, why pay that to Tesla when Nissan can sell a Leaf?

Even if Nissan makes money on each Leaf sold, at ~ 50k sales/yr the 5.6B $ development cost plus any early build losses discussed above will not be repaid for some time, likely never. But sales at this volume, might still warrant inexpensive development of small tweaks, particularly if they provide boosts to sales. Another reason to keep it small, is also the discussed discontinuation of the Leaf around mid-decade (source). This might explain why not much has changed since a larger battery “+” variant was introduced in 2019.

Most of the comments I see online regarding the Leaf take aim at two things: Lack of battery cooling, and the Chademo fast charging plug. There are aftermarket solutions in the works or being offered for both of these. Muxan a Dutch company offers a range of upgrades for the Nissan Leaf (including a CCS upgrade source), EVs enhanced plans to offer a liquid cooling battery replacement for the Nissan Leaf (source). Looking at both of these offerings, neither option looks particularly easy. Perhaps if you were Nissan, you could find ways to leverage the Leaf’s electronics to do some of the CCS translation similar to say what Tesla has done with their CCS to Tesla adapter (source). Its an interesting thought experiment to debate what might have been had the Leaf come with both CCS and battery cooling. Sales figures for the Chevy Bolt do not paint a particularly rosy picture (source). Perhaps if it had been an SUV or a sports car, it might have sold better?

Despite lacking battery cooling, and having a Chademo plug, the Leaf still might be the best EV for you. If you live in a cooler climate where the major local charging networks (say Flo, and Ivy) are still installing Chademo stations (say near Toronto Ontario). You need an EV with enough space to haul two kids, a dog and a lot of camping/skiing gear. You do not feel the need to drive across several provinces/states on a regular basis. You certainly could do a lot worse than a new (or cheaper yet, new to you) Nissan Leaf. Surely the recent announcement by GM that the Bolt EV is to be discontinued (source), makes the case slightly stronger.