I recently had lunch with an engineer working for a major legacy automaker. As with automakers these days, this one is very particular about quality. So much so, that developing a new internal combustion engine, is a major ordeal and they are very limited in what they can do in terms of engine improvements. Given the effort and diminishing returns, small improvements to existing engines is just about the only thing they can do. This severely limits automakers ability to develop different models, suppose for example that Ford wanted to start making small cars again, it would be a major undertaking now, unless it were electric.
Avid readers of this blog will note the several excellent reasons for going electric: Lower emissions, potential for substantial operating savings, the convenience of home charging, the abundance of charging and more. From the car manufacturer standpoint, there are many as well: Simpler manufacturing, less maintenance, more software oriented (pronounced higher profit margins). The first two are the reasons Tesla has largely gotten away without a dealership base, and while painful, the third, transition to more software oriented car-making, could translate into higher profit margins.
We now discuss a fourth, namely the process to certify a gasoline engine for operation in passenger cars. The EPA serves as a regulating authority for fuel economy in passenger cars. And since the engine is just about the only thing that burns fuel and creates emissions, managing the EPA is a major component of engine development. Further, much of a gas-car’s maintenance involves servicing the engine, the carmaker wants that process to be as predictable as possible lest there be excessive warranty or maintenance claims. Both of those conspire against any serious effort into engine development.
To see why, suppose you invented a wonderful new way to turn gas into motion. For example, this 8 kW micro-gas turbine. There are a number of never before tried things in here. The turbine might generate too much heat to be disposed of sensibly, turbine components are tricky to make (source), and they spin at high speed, making even minor imperfections potentially hazardous. What emissions would be created? Is there a mysterious compound that has some unforeseen health effects when millions of cars start running this? And so on and so forth. In short, the behavior of our example break-through technology, is not known to the same level of detail as a traditional gas engine. No amount of testing can replicate a century of traditional gas engine know-how.
The surprising result, is an acceleration of electrification. Suppose for example that Ford wanted to start selling cars in North America again. The Ford Focus for example will need an EPA certified gas engine, or an electric power train. If you are Ford, which one would you choose? Its far simpler to go electric, as you may not have a gas engine of a suitable size that is EPA certified, and could be put into the Ford Focus.
Electric car adventures 