Why keep Chinese EVs out of Canada’s market?

Recently, headlines were made, when Canada’s Innovation, science and industry minster said that his government was considdering levying tarrifs against Chinese EVs, similar to what the Biden administration has done in the US (source). A cynic might point out that Michigan is an important swing state, in a tight presidential race. There is some truth in that it seems, as Detroit’s EV offering is light on cars and heavy on trucks, while the Chinese are heavy on cars and light on trucks.

Lets begin by looking at what Detroit’s big three have to offer in Canada at the moment, below is a brief table outlining available EVs from Detroit’s big three (Ford, GM, Stellantis).

ModelCategoryPrice range [CAD]Comments
GMC Hummer EVPickup/SUV135k-165kBig beast of an EV
Silverado EVPickup80k-120kAvailable soon in Canada
Blazer EVSUV60k-80kBase models available now, higher trim to come
Equinox EVSUV50k-60kAvailable soon in Canada
Mustang Mach ESUV55k-75kAvailable now
F150 LightningPickup60k-120kAvailable now
Dodge Charger EVSports carLikely ~ 60k-100kPricing not released yest, guestimating based on fossil versions

From the table above the only Detroit car is the Dodge Charger EV, which eh, is not available yet, not even to pre-order, which is a bit odd given that manufacturing is suposed to start this summer (source). Well, lets look across the Atlantic and see what I can get there.

ModelCategoryPrice range [CAD]Comments
MG 4Car45k-60kGood seller in Europe
MG 5Car/Station wagon50k-60kMarketed as an estate car in the UK
MG ZSSUV50k-60kSmaller SUV, probably be called a crossover here
Atto 3SUV66kSmall SUV/Crossover
BYD DophinCar/Hatchback45kNissan Leaf esque
BYD SEALCar75kAimed at luxury end of the market
ORA 3Small Car55kSmall car

I found it somewhat surprising how expensive the Chinese offerings are in Europe (mostly from Carwow (source), while you could get a BYD Dolphin or the MG4 for 45k, which is cheaper than Detroit’s Equinox at 50k, many people would fork over the extra 5k to move up to an SUV, as you expect more space and comfort in an SUV (the reality is perhaps more complicated, for example the Nissan Leaf’s 435L boot does beat out many SUVs source).

Any look into the EV market, would be incomplete without considering the market leader Tesla, the following table shows what I got of https://www.tesla.com/en_ca:

ModelCategoryPriceComments
Model 3Car50k-70kSporty car
Model YSUV55k-80kMany Y’s sold in Canada are actually Chinese made
Model XLarge SUV110k-130kAvailable with a third row
Model SSports car100k-125kSports car

So, what does all of this means to our discussion on using tariffs to “keep-Chinese-EVs-out-of-Canada”. The argument for tariffs is that they would harm Canada’s automotive sector as the Chinese can “dump” EVs into the Canadian market, making it impossible for legacy auto, many of which have Canadian factories employing 135k Canadians (source), to transition to electric vehicles. Tariffs would however, make EVs more expensive for Canadians. From our “Chinese table” above, we see that the average Canadian could save 5-10k on their EV by going Chinese.

It certainly seems silly to put tariffs on Chinese “Car”- EVs, given that the big three have very little interest in actually making cars. In fact it would only be the Tesla Model 3, and possibly, the Nissan Leaf, some of which are made in Smyrna, TN (source), that might be harmed by this. Neither are in Michigan. Plus if you want an electric station wagon, your only choice is the Chinese made MG5.

Given all this, it certainly seems that Chinese automakers would have an excellent court-case against any tariffs placed on their EVs. Not to different from the “dumping-case” brought by Bombardier against Boeing in the late 2010’s (source), where the courts (the International Trade Commission), found that while Bombardier had “dumped” their C-series into the US market, as US manufacturers (Boeing in this case), did not have competing models that were sufficiently harmed by said “dumping”.

It could actually be argued that recent Tesla price cuts, are the biggest threat to the Canadian auto-sector. After all, Tesla does not have much in terms of a Canadian footprint, compared with Detroit’s big three. Take the Equinox EV for example, when pitched against the model 3, you get an SUV for the cost of a car. However, as the Equinox pricing is similar to the Model Y nowadays, many would prefer the Tesla over the Chevy.

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