Is there a market for a cheap EV?

In the summer of 2024, some Nissan dealerships in Colorado found a way to leverage the state’s generous incentives to come up with a very cheap lease deal. Briefly, you could lease a brand new Nissan LEAF for as little as $20 (US) a month, with $2500 (US) (source). This caused a lot of stir on youtube, but we are now starting to see quarterly sales figures that provide some insights into how much of a market there might be for a “cheap-EV”.

Nissan sales figures are easy enough to obtain, quarterly sales figures are released regularly for Nissan USA (source). Lets chart these for three models, the Nissan Leaf, Versa and Aryia.

Seems like there was an uptick in sales right around “7”, e.g. Q3 2024, just after the lease deal was announced (source). Lets take a closer look by normalizing the above sales figures, setting Q2 2024 (“6”), as 1.

Wow, a doubling in sales in that one quarter! That’s quite some bump, interestingly enough, the Nissan Leaf has been on a slowing-sales streak for quite some time, indeed, quarter after quarter, Leaf sales slowed, until that cheap lease deal came around.

Having a look at our other comparators, that explosion in Leaf sales come against a backdrop of steady Aryia sales, and slightly increasing Versa sales. This suggests that interest in inexpensive cars such as the Nissan versa is on the rise, which again sets the stage for lots of potent sales if only the price was right.

In some ways that was always the problem with the Nissan LEAF, its a very capable EV, particularly in situations where your driving is mostly in-town. However, compared to its peers, say the Tesla Model 3, it was priced too high. That fixed, seems customers (at least in Colorado), noticed.

Its possible that dealerships in other states, such as California, Washington, Oregon etc. could also fashion a lease deal based on available incentives, although at this point in time, none have. But as Colorado is home to about 5.8 M residents, out of a total 330 M (source). Hence had that lease deal been available to all Americans, perhaps more than 230 000 Nissan Leafs could have been sold in USA in Q3 2024. That’s about as many vehicles as Nissan sold in that quarter for all its brands, which indeed suggest there is a market for an inexpensive EV in the united states.