Lately, signs have been popping up in my neighbourhood “Retire the Portlands gas plant”. Presumably referring to the gas power plant in the Toronto Portlands, and its 600 MW of rated power. I live in a fairly left-leaning neighbourhood, even by Toronto standards, and the few politically charged materials I have stumbled across have failed to do some basic math on the concept. To the benefits of my neighbours, lets add some math to the concept, and discuss some basics, in particular if we need the output of the Portalnts plant at all.
When the Portlands power station came online back in 2008, the “social contract” was mostly about managing “peak-demand”, hence the power plant would only really run for a few hours each day (source, and source). I think most of us would call that reasonable, the resulting air-pollution for just a few hours a year is a small price to pay for energy security. However since 2023, the plant has averaged 21 hours a day (source), which is a very different social contract than the “peaker-plant” story discussed in 2008, hence the yard signs sprouting up in my neighbourhood.
Reduced nuclear generation owning to refurbishment projects at Bruce and Darlington is an often quoted as reasons for needing to temporarily operate Portlands. But looking at power data for the month of October 2025 (source), reveals that power exports, mostly to Quebec, almost always exceed the 600 MW generating capacity of the Portlands plant. Well, that seems a little silly, like sending a shipment of coffee to Brazil, given Quebec’s status as a clean hydro-powerhouse (source). Burning gas to replace hydro does seem a little silly, as hydro once built, is much cheaper to run. Hence that story does not quite hold water.
Transmission line capacity into Toronto is limited, is another story we are told. But on this October day, somehow Portlands is running full-tilt, even though province wide, today’s 16 GW peak is well below the 25 GW required this summer (source), hence surely there must be sufficient transmission capacity into Toronto (which is about 20% of overall Ontario demand source), as somehow we managed the 25 GW last August.
So why operate Portlands at all? Well, I can only speculate, but money seems to be the main motivation. Portlands power is there, was recently refurbished (source), and natural gas prices are at or near three decade lows (source). All this adds up to an opportunity to make a few bucks, at a time where budgets are coming under strain. Portlands power is owned by Ontario Power Generation (source), which ultimately means the province of Ontario gets the cheque in the end.
But alas, since health care is also a provincial budget item, each asthma case costs many thousands of dollars to deal with (source), a slightly lower asthma incidence following the closure of Portlands power, might easily offset whatever dollars are made shipping gas-powered electricity to Quebec.
Portlands power made some sense as a peaker plant, it certainly has helped keep the lights on in Toronto. Thus to retire the plant outright seems to me a step too far. But to operate it purely for the tax-dollars gained by selling electricity to Quebec is quite silly. Especially given the increased provincial health outlay associated with the air-pollution generated by the plant that is right in downtown Toronto. Perhaps we can go back to the “few hours a year” operating model we had before.
Electric car adventures 